Friday, June 1, 2012

Crisis in the Euro Zone: Alexis Tsipras Is the Greek Who Makes Europe Tremble

Greek Politician Alexis Tsipras, on the rooftop of Syriza Party Headquarters.

Eirini Vourloumis FOR TIME

Just weeks ago, Alexis Tsipras, 37, was an obscure opposition politician. Now, he's unnerving the powers that be in the European Union because he and his leftist party Syriza ? a group whose membership ranges from hardline Communists to moderate socialists ? have the potential of forming a government after the June 17 elections. A teenage member of the Communist Youth of Greece, Tsipras has executed a dramatic and canny political metamorphosis, transforming himself fromthe leader of a radical leftist coalition to a left-of-center standard bearer for anti-bailout and anti-austerity populism. And in so doing, he has confunded the ossified poltiical class of Greece, which acceded to the strictures imposed by the E.U. in order for Athens to receive the funds it needs to satisfy its creditors. Now, Tsipras may hold the future of the euro and the E.U. in his hands. All he needs to do is win enough seats to govern.

(MORE: See the TIME magazine piece on Tsipras)

Tsipras spoke to TIME's Joanna Kakissis at the Syriza office on Koumoundourou Square in Athens. Following is the transcript of the interview:

TIME: Are you willing to make the necessary structural reforms in Greece to revive the economy?
ALEXIS TSIRPAS:
It is obvious that Greece ? and the Greek economy ? has its own particularities that played a role in making this economic crisis deeper and longer. Indeed, we must make structural reforms which will the public sector more reliable, create an effective and fair taxation system, and fight the black economy which has been like a kind of gangrene on the Greek economy. As far as I know, the underground economy represents 30% of the GDP.

At the same time, we will try to restore faith in the law and convince people that the state is equitable and effective. We will destroy corruption and the interconnection of political and economic power from its roots. Without the contribution of the citizens, these reforms cannot take place. But in order to contribute, the citizens want to know that these reforms will not be implemented only to those who have low incomes but those who have high incomes and come from the upper class. There is a Greek saying: "The fish always stinks from its head". (which means, roughly, corruption starts at the top). So if we don't fight the problem at its roots, then we won't be able to establish positive morale that can encourage all Greeks to also fight against it.

(MORE: Angry Greek Voters Punish Leaders over Austerity at the Ballot Box)

But you need a long time to make such reforms...
Some things need time, but some other can change quickly. For instance, I can't understand why the last two and half years we are chasing our tail when it comes to taxation. We taxed poor people again and again, but no one talked about what we really needed, which is an assets register by which every Greek will be obliged to register their properties, their bank accounts in Greece or abroad, as well as their mobile assets, such as the shares of a company they possibly have. Only in this way, we will be able to tax everyone according to their real capability of paying taxes and we will create a system which will share the responsibilities in a fair way. Of course, for these policies to be effective, we should also create a high-penalty system for those who break the law. Whoever makes a false statement about his assets should be punished by having a bit part of these assets confiscated. There is no magical way out of the crisis. However, there are for sure solutions, tough but fair, in order to share in a just way the responsibilities, establish a positive morale and give a boost to the Greek economy.

There are some outside Greece who say Greece wants it both ways...
It's a paradox to think Greece can stay in the euro zone if the austerity policies continue to be implemented. The austerity policy, and especially this extreme policy based on the term "internal devaluation", is exactly what we should have avoided.
It's the wrong prescription, the wrong medicine for the patient, because Greece has a production base with a special characteristic: 90% of the small businesses' production, which are the foundation of the Greek economy, is not exported. It is sold on the domestic market. So, when you make a horizontal cut of the wages and the pensions, inevitably there is an impact on the consumption. Hence, 200,000 small Greek businesses have closed down! As a result, unemployment rates soared ? nowadays, one out of two young people under 30 years old is unemployed ? and the recession became deeper to the point that it's the fifth consecutive year of recession and GDP lost 20 points, which has never happened before in any European country in a time of peace!

Therefore, we realize that these policies were the wrong medicine for the crisis; they were shocking, ineffective policies, which led Greek people to face the possibility of a humanitarian crisis. When there is a patient, and you give him medicine, and it only makes him worse, it is not logical to insist on giving him a higher dose of the same medicine. You've got to change the medicine. If we continue taking this austerity medicine, and especially at a higher dose, that's when Greece is going to be forced out of the euro. And when Greece leaves, the whole euro zone will starts wobbling.
Because if one country gets out of the euro, the next day the markets will hunt for the next one to follow in this aggressive, devaluing speculation of the bonds, which is speculated by the big hedge funds. We think that this would not be good either for Greece or for Europe. So, the policy that we want to implement ? without austerity, but inside euro zone ? is the only realistic and ? we could argue ? the only rational policy which will benefit everyone.

PHOTOS: General Strike Leads to Anti-Austerity Protests in Greece

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/time/world/~3/V9CuLpP6evw/0,8599,2116075,00.html

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Tensions Inside John Edwards Jury Room

In nine long days of deliberations, tension occasionally escalated in a North Carolina jury room as eight men and four women debated the guilt of John Edwards, who was on trial for allegedly using money from wealthy donors to cover up an affair and love child.

Together they acquitted Edwards, a two-time presidential candidate, of one count but found themselves hopelessly deadlocked on the other five campaign-finance charges.

Jurors talked publicly for the first time today on "Good Morning America" about the sometimes heated exchanges inside the jury room, as the days ticked by and the pressure mounted for 12 strangers to come to a unanimous consensus about the legal culpability of a man whose moral failings were on full display.

"Everybody's got their own beliefs based off what they saw and they stood their ground, they stood by their decision and I respect that," said juror Jonathan Nunn, a maintenance technician who voted "not guilty" on all six counts.

The panel could agree only on Count 3 of the indictment, which dealt specifically with checks written by wealthy heiress Rachel "Bunny" Mellon in 2008.

On every other count, the jury fought it out, the majority unable to sway a steadfast minority convinced of Edwards' guilt.

"Twelve people, trying to get them all to see eye to eye on the same level, that's going to be hard in any aspect," Nunn told "GMA."

PHOTO: Members of jury discuss what went on behind closed doors during deliberation.

ABC News

Members of jury discuss what went on behind... View Full Size
PHOTO: Members of jury discuss what went on behind closed doors during deliberation.
John Edwards Juror: 'The Evidence Just Wasn't There' Watch Video
John Edwards Defense: Will There Be a Retrial? Watch Video
Juror Had 'No Intention' of Flirting With Edwards Watch Video

Nunn said "there were a couple of times" where tension and tempers rose in the jury room, but the panel "tried to keep level-headed," knowing it was their duty to try and form a consensus.

Many of the jurors believed the government had not presented a strong enough case linking Edwards to the money his backers shelled out to support mistress Rielle Hunter and his love child, Frances Quinn.

"I just felt that he didn't receive any of the money so you can't really charge him for money that he got. He didn't even get the money so I just didn't think he was guilty," said Sheila Lockwood, a hospital telephone operator who voted to acquit on all charges.

"There wasn't enough [evidence] there," Lockwood said, adding that she did not believe the case should have ever come to a courtroom in Greensboro, N.C.

The jurors with whom ABC News spoke believed the prosecution had not made its case, but said there was a small group of holdouts convinced of Edwards' guilt.

"I felt like the evidence just wasn't there," said juror Theresa Fuller, a heat press operator. "It could have been more. It could have been a lot more than what it was."

Jurors told Federal Judge Catherine Eagles Thursday they were finished deliberating all six counts. The judge and other parties assumed that meant the panel had reached a verdict, but the courtroom was briefly thrown into confusion when it was revealed they had a verdict on just one count.

Eagles read the panel an Allen Charge, insisting they go back to work to try to reach a consensus. Less than an hour later, the jury came back and admitted they were deadlocked.

The judge declared a mistrial on the five outstanding charges, but Justice Department sources told ABC News Thursday a new trial was unlikely.

Edwards and his defense team were seen celebrating at a bar after the verdict had been read.

Immediately after the verdict, Edwards made a statement on the courthouse steps, speaking publically for the first time since the trial began.

Source: http://feeds.abcnews.com/click.phdo?i=e693e827238ec09649b353b3e72bca80

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UK prepares for Jubilee events

View looking down the Mall towards Admiralty ArchA full rehearsal of the carriage procession, which will pass down the Mall, is under way

Final preparations for the weekend's events celebrating the Queen's Diamond Jubilee are under way in London.

At 04:00 BST a full dress rehearsal of Tuesday's carriage procession began between Westminster Hall and Buckingham Palace.

The captains and crew of more than 1,000 boats that will sail along the River Thames in a flotilla on Sunday will also be briefed later.

The Diamond Jubilee celebrates 60 years since the Queen came to the throne.

The Woodland Trust has also revealed the location of 60 new large woodland areas designed to celebrate the Queen's reign.

In the early hours of Friday, members of the armed forces and the Household Division are rehearsing the carriage procession, which is one of the final events of the Jubilee celebrations.

Who's in carriage procession?

Jubilee rehearsal

  • Royal Navy
  • Royal Marines
  • The Household Cavalry, Foot Guards and Massed Bands of the Household Division
  • The King's Troop Royal Horse Artillery
  • The Princess of Wales' Royal Regiment
  • Royal Air Force Colour Squadron

Final Jubilee preparations begin

The Queen and Duke of Edinburgh will be joined by the Prince of Wales and The Duchess of Cornwall, The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and Prince Harry for Tuesday's event.

At 09:00 BST on Friday, preparations will continue for the BBC's Jubilee concert, which will be held in front of Buckingham Palace in the area surrounding the Queen Victoria Memorial on Monday.

A range of artists, including Dame Shirley Bassey, Sir Elton John, Jessie J, JLS and Ed Sheeran are due to perform.

The concert will be broadcast live on BBC One, BBC One HD and on BBC Radio 2 in the UK and to millions around the world.

Boats taking part in the Thames Jubilee Pageant will start mustering at West India Quay, near Canary Wharf, from 09:00 BST on Friday.

More than 1,000 vessels of all shapes and sizes will form a flotilla and sail along the Thames from upriver of Battersea Bridge to downriver of Tower Bridge on Sunday.

Map of the UKThe 60 Diamond Woods are shown by a diamond symbol on the map

Ships too tall to pass under Tower Bridge are being moored along the banks of the river, to form an avenue of sail.

The 60 new areas of woodland will each be at least 60 acres in size and spread across the UK.

The Woodland Trust says more than 250 smaller Jubilee Woods will also be planted to help the trust achieve its goal of planting 6m trees in 2012.

Georgina McLeod, director of the Woodland Trust Jubilee Woods project, said: "[The woods] will help make a massive difference to the environment and pay a special tribute to Her Majesty The Queen."

Meanwhile, the Archbishop of Canterbury has paid tribute to the Queen, who he describes as being "unfailingly supportive and kind".

Rowan Williams, who will step down as Archbishop in December after 10 years, said in a video that during private meetings, he discovered that Her Majesty is "extremely funny and prepared to be teased", and helped him through difficult periods of his own life.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18283974#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

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Crisis in the Euro Zone: Alexis Tsipras Is the Greek Who Makes Europe Tremble

Greek Politician Alexis Tsipras, on the rooftop of Syriza Party Headquarters.

Eirini Vourloumis FOR TIME

Just weeks ago, Alexis Tsipras, 37, was an obscure opposition politician. Now, he's unnerving the powers that be in the European Union because he and his leftist party Syriza ? a group whose membership ranges from hardline Communists to moderate socialists ? have the potential of forming a government after the June 17 elections. A teenage member of the Communist Youth of Greece, Tsipras has executed a dramatic and canny political metamorphosis, transforming himself fromthe leader of a radical leftist coalition to a left-of-center standard bearer for anti-bailout and anti-austerity populism. And in so doing, he has confunded the ossified poltiical class of Greece, which acceded to the strictures imposed by the E.U. in order for Athens to receive the funds it needs to satisfy its creditors. Now, Tsipras may hold the future of the euro and the E.U. in his hands. All he needs to do is win enough seats to govern.

(MORE: See the TIME magazine piece on Tsipras)

Tsipras spoke to TIME's Joanna Kakissis at the Syriza office on Koumoundourou Square in Athens. Following is the transcript of the interview:

TIME: Are you willing to make the necessary structural reforms in Greece to revive the economy?
ALEXIS TSIRPAS:
It is obvious that Greece ? and the Greek economy ? has its own particularities that played a role in making this economic crisis deeper and longer. Indeed, we must make structural reforms which will the public sector more reliable, create an effective and fair taxation system, and fight the black economy which has been like a kind of gangrene on the Greek economy. As far as I know, the underground economy represents 30% of the GDP.

At the same time, we will try to restore faith in the law and convince people that the state is equitable and effective. We will destroy corruption and the interconnection of political and economic power from its roots. Without the contribution of the citizens, these reforms cannot take place. But in order to contribute, the citizens want to know that these reforms will not be implemented only to those who have low incomes but those who have high incomes and come from the upper class. There is a Greek saying: "The fish always stinks from its head". (which means, roughly, corruption starts at the top). So if we don't fight the problem at its roots, then we won't be able to establish positive morale that can encourage all Greeks to also fight against it.

(MORE: Angry Greek Voters Punish Leaders over Austerity at the Ballot Box)

But you need a long time to make such reforms...
Some things need time, but some other can change quickly. For instance, I can't understand why the last two and half years we are chasing our tail when it comes to taxation. We taxed poor people again and again, but no one talked about what we really needed, which is an assets register by which every Greek will be obliged to register their properties, their bank accounts in Greece or abroad, as well as their mobile assets, such as the shares of a company they possibly have. Only in this way, we will be able to tax everyone according to their real capability of paying taxes and we will create a system which will share the responsibilities in a fair way. Of course, for these policies to be effective, we should also create a high-penalty system for those who break the law. Whoever makes a false statement about his assets should be punished by having a bit part of these assets confiscated. There is no magical way out of the crisis. However, there are for sure solutions, tough but fair, in order to share in a just way the responsibilities, establish a positive morale and give a boost to the Greek economy.

There are some outside Greece who say Greece wants it both ways...
It's a paradox to think Greece can stay in the euro zone if the austerity policies continue to be implemented. The austerity policy, and especially this extreme policy based on the term "internal devaluation", is exactly what we should have avoided.
It's the wrong prescription, the wrong medicine for the patient, because Greece has a production base with a special characteristic: 90% of the small businesses' production, which are the foundation of the Greek economy, is not exported. It is sold on the domestic market. So, when you make a horizontal cut of the wages and the pensions, inevitably there is an impact on the consumption. Hence, 200,000 small Greek businesses have closed down! As a result, unemployment rates soared ? nowadays, one out of two young people under 30 years old is unemployed ? and the recession became deeper to the point that it's the fifth consecutive year of recession and GDP lost 20 points, which has never happened before in any European country in a time of peace!

Therefore, we realize that these policies were the wrong medicine for the crisis; they were shocking, ineffective policies, which led Greek people to face the possibility of a humanitarian crisis. When there is a patient, and you give him medicine, and it only makes him worse, it is not logical to insist on giving him a higher dose of the same medicine. You've got to change the medicine. If we continue taking this austerity medicine, and especially at a higher dose, that's when Greece is going to be forced out of the euro. And when Greece leaves, the whole euro zone will starts wobbling.
Because if one country gets out of the euro, the next day the markets will hunt for the next one to follow in this aggressive, devaluing speculation of the bonds, which is speculated by the big hedge funds. We think that this would not be good either for Greece or for Europe. So, the policy that we want to implement ? without austerity, but inside euro zone ? is the only realistic and ? we could argue ? the only rational policy which will benefit everyone.

PHOTOS: General Strike Leads to Anti-Austerity Protests in Greece

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/time/world/~3/V9CuLpP6evw/0,8599,2116075,00.html

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'Death Match': Why a Nazi-Era Soccer Movie Is Making Ukraine Angry

A scene from the movie Match.

Central Partnership / Inter-Film / AP

The Nazi officers stroll down Kiev's main boulevard through cheering crowds and accept the welcoming gift of bread and salt offered by women in Ukrainian national dress. A man in the crowd nods approvingly. "There will be order," he says in Ukrainian.

This is one of many scenes in a World War II soccer film that have riled Ukrainians as their country prepares to co-host the European Championship, the world's second-biggest soccer tournament after the World Cup. The film, Match, which was made in Russia and released earlier this month in Ukraine, tells the story of a soccer game organized in Kiev in 1942 against the backdrop of the Nazi occupation of what was then the Soviet Republic of Ukraine. A team of locals beats a team comprised of Germans ? and some of the players are later killed for refusing to throw the match.

(MORE: Why a European Soccer Tournament Is Turning into a P.R. Disaster for Ukraine)

The film, which received a majority of its funding from the Russian government, is typical war-movie fare, with a tough-talking hero, a simpering heroine and underhanded villains. But what sets it apart from others in the genre is the portrayal of most of the Ukrainian speakers in the film as Nazi collaborators and sympathizers. The mayor of Kiev is depicted as a weak Nazi stooge who tries to steal the Russian-speaking hero's girl. Ukrainian guards help Nazi killers at Babyn Yar, the ravine in Kiev where tens of thousands of Jews and others were massacred.

Ukrainians have reacted with outrage at such portrayals. Many call the film an attempt to humiliate the country, which was ruled for centuries by Moscow but is now trying to wriggle free of the Kremlin's grip and form closer ties with Europe.

(Photos: Rosh Hashana In Uman, Ukraine)

Ever since Ukraine declared independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has fought hard to keep the country in its sphere of influence. Russians trace the origins of their nation back to Kiev, which gives Ukraine a special meaning in the national psyche, and one of Moscow's favored tools has been to appeal to the countries' common history and culture. "Ukrainians now think of themselves as a nation that exists separately from the Russian nation, but the Russian nation thinks on the scale of the Soviet Union, of an empire," says Stanislav Kulchytskiy, a Ukrainian historian. "Russia is a great state and wants to act like a lord. The European Union would provide Ukraine with some defense from Russia's constant striving to swallow it."

Ukrainian film officials initially said they would ban the movie over fears it might stir up ethnic tensions ahead of the Euro 2012 championship, which kicks off June 8. They eventually relented, but when the film premiered in Kiev on April 26, activists from the nationalist Svoboda party broke up the event. "Out, Muscovite occupiers!" "Shame on Ukrainophobic films!" a group of around two dozen young men chanted as they tore down posters advertizing the film.

(MORE: Racism and Euro 2012: Football's Ongoing Struggle)

Historians say that some Ukrainians did collaborate with the Nazis during World War II. Some worked as auxiliary police; others formed armed groups to fight for an independent Ukrainian state and briefly hoped the Nazis would help them. But critics say the film is exaggerated to suggest that all Ukrainians who wanted independence were Nazi lackeys ? and that Ukraine would be better off sticking with Russia. "It's shot from the official Russian point of view that says all people who fought for Ukrainian independence are bad," says Ukrainian journalist Oksana Faryna, who has written about the movie for the Kyiv Post. "It's political propaganda to bring Ukraine back to Russia, to show we are one nation with one history. It makes Ukrainians look like 'Little Russians' who should let their big brother show them what to do."

(MORE: Can Europe Tempt Ukraine Back to Democracy?)

Even the events surrounding the match are in dispute. The so-called "Death Match" depicted in the film took place on Aug. 9, 1942, between a Soviet team called Start and Germany's Flakelf. According to the Soviet version of the story, Start players were warned that they should lose or face dire consequences. After they won the match 5-3, some of the players were sent to a concentration camp and shot. The story became legend in the Soviet Union, where it was used as a patriotic tale of loyalty and resistance.

But some accounts dispute this version of events. One theory suggests that the men were shot after glass was discovered in the bread of German officers made at the bakery where the players were working. "It's a film that offends Ukrainian honor and attaches Soviet myths to us Ukrainians," Ihor Miroshnichenko, a sports journalist and nationalist activist, said at the protest on April 26. "There was no 'death match.' It's a fabrication of Muscovite propaganda, of Soviet agitprop."

The film's producers don't shy away from the fact they are perpetuating the Soviet version of events, calling the movie "a historical patriotic drama." "It's a film about all of us and our shared Motherland," they say in a joint statement on the film's website. But the director, Andrei Maliukov, denies any political motivation behind the film or the depictions of Ukrainian characters. "I didn't think about making a pro-Ukrainian or anti-Ukrainian film," he told reporters in April. "It's a film about love, about soccer, about how tough it was for some people to live in this historical moment."

(MORE: Will Ukraine Choose a Sympathetic Russia over a Democratic Europe?)

Ukrainians, meanwhile, lament the fact that no film has been made locally about the World War II match. "We don't have our own film industry or any filmmakers with financing who can present real, complicated stories with different shades to allow the viewer to decide," Faryna says. If Ukraine could do that, it would be one way to show Russia that it is truly independent.

See TIME's Pictures of the Week.

See A Brief History of World War II Movies.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/time/world/~3/ALQDsyrEMwc/0,8599,2116038,00.html

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Dolan Quiet on Payments to Pedophile Priests

Cardinal Timothy Dolan of the archdiocese of New York is keeping quiet today after his old diocese, the archdiocese of Milwaukee, confirmed that under his leadership the church paid individual sums of $20,000 to priests accused of molesting children.

Dolan, who became a cardinal in February and serves as the head of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops, is recorded discussing the payments in the minutes of financial committee meetings in 2003, documents released as the Milwaukee archdioecese goes through bankruptcy court in Wisconsin.

The archdiocese of Milwaukee confirmed to the Associated Press Wednesday that the church paid the priests money to voluntarily sign papers to leave the priesthood because it was cheaper and faster than removing them by other administrative routes, which would have included going through the Vatican.

"In 2002, the Church affirmed that priest offenders should no longer be functioning as priests in any capacity and having someone seek laicization voluntarily is faster and less expensive and it made sense to try and move these men out of the priesthood as quickly as possible," Archdiocese spokeswoman Julie Wolf told local news station WTMJ-TV.

The Milwaukee diocese did not return calls from ABC News today seeking comment.

PHOTO: In this Feb. 25, 2012, file photo, Cardinal Timothy Dolan speaks to the press after prayer services at St. Patrick's Cathedral in New York. The Archdiocese of Milwaukee confirmed May 30, 2012, that it had a policy to pay suspected pedophile priests

Jason DeCrow/AP

In this Feb. 25, 2012, file photo, Cardinal... View Full Size
PHOTO: In this Feb. 25, 2012, file photo, Cardinal Timothy Dolan speaks to the press after prayer services at St. Patrick's Cathedral in New York. The Archdiocese of Milwaukee confirmed May 30, 2012, that it had a policy to pay suspected pedophile priests
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According to Peter Isely, of the Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests (SNAP), the payments are tantamount to "bonuses" paid out to child rapists and molestors.

"I don't know any other organization that when you're fired from your job because of a criminal act, you get paid to leave your job," Isely said. "Obviously something is profoundly wrong with this system that they say is fixed. You're paying off a child rapist; you're giving them a bonus check; it's a bonus basically."

The archdiocese contested that claim, saying the payments were used to quickly move suspected pedophiles out of the priesthood, according to the AP. Spokeswoman Julie Wolf said the payments were to help the men transition to lay life without completely losing access to needs such as health care.

Dolan declined to comment on the matter, but the archdiocese of New York told ABC News today that Dolan "has read and supports the statements that came out of Milwaukee."

Isely said that up until at least 2010, priests accused of pedophilia were still being paid the money, typically divided into two payments of $10,000 - one when they began the process of laicization, and one when they completed it.

Dolan left the Milwaukee archdiocese in 2009 to become archbishop of New York, the second largest diocese in the country, and in 2010 became the head of the conference of bishops, the most visible Catholic role in the country. Isely, of SNAP, wondered if Dolan now presided over similar arrangements in other dioceses.

"Is this a nationwide policy by U.S. bishops to pay off priests? To dump them quietly into the community, and when they do this, they don't tell people who these individuals are," Isely said.

Months after Dolan left Milwaukee, the archdiocese there filed for bankruptcy, after more than 570 alleged victims came forward claiming abuse by priests.

Source: http://feeds.abcnews.com/click.phdo?i=06213ac4f606fcaa90bee0b133f304ce

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Memo From Africa: Sudans Caught in Tense Cycle ? Memo From Africa

NAIROBI, Kenya ? For the first time in months, after killing scores if not hundreds of each other?s men, Sudan and South Sudan are back at the negotiating table, wrangled into peace talks by an increasingly worried international coalition, including the United States and China, that was terrified that the two countries were on the brink of a cataclysmic war.

It was less than two months ago that Sudan?s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, ridiculed South Sudan?s government in Juba as a measly ?insect? that needed to be swatted away. Since then, the two sides have announced that they pulled out of Abyei, a disputed area. On Thursday, Barnaba Marial Benjamin, South Sudan?s information minister, said the negotiations, taking place in Ethiopia, were ?going well.?

Guns flashing one day. Smiles the next. Sudan analysts say that is simply how it is going to be with these two feuding neighbors. Though Sudan and South Sudan may never descend to a full-fledged war, partly because of all the international attention, they will probably never achieve full-fledged peace either.

?I do not see things improving much and basically think that the current style of destructive but low-level violence will be the order of the day,? said John O. Voll, a professor of Islamic history at Georgetown University and a longtime Sudan specialist.

Mr. Bashir recently offered a similar assessment, saying, ?If they want to change the regime in Khartoum, we will work to change the regime in Juba.? He added, ?And if they want to support our rebels, we will support theirs.?

The tensions run deep. Guerrilla fighters in what is now South Sudan, which is mostly Christian and animist and culturally more akin to sub-Saharan Africa, fought for decades against the Arab-dominated leaders in Khartoum, Sudan?s capital. Last July, South Sudan officially broke off from Sudan and became the world?s newest country. People celebrated for days.

But the euphoria did not last. There were too many unresolved issues, and Sudan and South Sudan soon began squabbling bitterly over how to demarcate the border and share oil profits. (The conundrum of the two Sudans is that while most of the oil is in the south, the pipeline runs through the north.)

Complicating things even further was a fierce rebellion in the Nuba Mountains, which lie just across the border in Sudan. The Nuban fighters had been close allies of the southern rebels, and there was evidence that South Sudan?s new government was covertly supplying the Nubans with money, tanks and militia fighters. At the same time, Khartoum seemed to be covertly arming ethnic militias in the south that had killed thousands in the past few years, making a mockery of the South Sudanese security forces.

In January, South Sudan cut off oil production, a measure aimed at Khartoum that also hurt at home. The southern government gets 98 percent of its revenue from oil sales and may soon run out of cash to pay its army, a situation everyone agrees is a time bomb. In April, vicious north-south fighting broke out along the border. Despite Mr. Bashir?s boast that he had ?fertilized the soil with their dead,? South Sudan surprised many by seizing Heglig, one of the last oil fields Sudan still has. It seemed that all the internal stress and divisions in the north, including the continuing insurgency in the Darfur region, were finally catching up with Sudan and that its army was not what it once was.

Mr. Bashir has many headaches, including soaring inflation, urban protests and his own status as an international pariah. Sudan has struggled under tough economic sanctions for years, and Mr. Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges for the massacres in Darfur. Analysts fear that a war would be just the lifeline he needs, and that his country would rally behind him. The same may be true for Salva Kiir, South Sudan?s president, who also faces rising discontent and sharpening ethnic divisions in his new nation.

?Both sides have an interest in war,? said Mariam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi, a leading opposition politician in Khartoum. ?It?s a way out for them, from internal problems they can?t handle.?

The last major conflict between the two sides, from the 1980s until the early 2000s, was a disaster, with more than two million people killed. Hundreds of thousands of starving refugees fled the fighting, including the so-called Lost Boys, orphaned children who trudged hundreds of miles across jungles and savannas, dodging bombers and lions.

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=fb44cc86412d3c068663b7fd5b81d791

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