MOSCOW ? There are not many world capitals today where President Bashar al-Assad of Syria can count on unstinting support. But diplomats who passed through Moscow this week hoping to secure Russia?s help in forcing him from power were met with cold refusal.
The United Nations estimates that more than 5,400 people have been killed in Syria since the uprising began in March, and among the countries that have called for Mr. Assad to step down are the United States, Turkey and Jordan, as well as the members of the European Union and the Arab League. But Russia remains a staunch defender, providing Damascus with a political lifeline as well as arms and ammunition.
Moscow entrenched itself as Mr. Assad?s political bulwark on Friday, declaring that it would, with China, oppose a Security Council resolution calling on Mr. Assad to step down. A deputy foreign minister, Gennadi Gatilov, told the Interfax news agency that the resolution was ?doomed to failure? unless the demand for Mr. Assad?s ouster was dropped and a call for opposition forces to renounce violence was included.
Another deputy foreign minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov, rejected Western criticism of continuing arms shipments to Mr. Assad?s government, including a freshly inked $550 million contract for fighter planes.
?I do not understand why we should justify ourselves for that, constantly blush, turn pale, be damp with sweat,? Mr. Ryabkov told the radio station Ekho Moskvy on Thursday. ?We are acting within our rights.?
Russian political support has proven essential to the Assad government, said Peter Harling, a Syria specialist with the International Crisis Group. Statements of support from Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov are featured continuously by Syrian state news agencies, he said, offering reassurance that Mr. Assad?s government still has mighty allies.
?It is central to the regime?s narrative and key to the cohesiveness of the regime?s ranks,? Mr. Harling said. ?They believe that the international community is divided. So Russians are providing cover for the regime to push forward with their approach. There is a strong belief that all doors are not closed.?
Russia has staked out this position for a variety of reasons that have little to do with the specifics of Syria?s political crisis, chief among them weapon exports, domestic politics and resentment over the Libyan campaign. It reflects a shift that has taken place as Vladimir V. Putin prepares to return to the presidency, deeply distrustful of the West?s intentions both in Russia and in the Middle East. He has accused the United States of orchestrating uprisings in both regions.
?Theoretically, the Western bloc has a few more months of the Medvedev presidency,? said Yevgeny Y. Satanovsky, president of the Institute of the Middle East in Moscow. ?After that, Putin is a bigger realist than Medvedev, he has more experience, he is much more pragmatic. I don?t think he will have these ideas from the Medvedev side that opened the gate to this campaign in Libya.?
Libya is a particular grievance. Mr. Putin seethed over the aftermath of the United Nations resolution establishing what was supposed to be a no-fly zone in Libya, which China and Russia last March agreed not to veto. Many in the government contend that President Dmitri A. Medvedev was deceived by Western allies who then used the resolution to justify airstrikes to drive Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi from power.
?We were na�ve and stupid,? said Mr. Satanovsky, an influential analyst. ?The Chinese were the same. Trust this: That was the last mistake of such type.?
Another consideration is practical. Syria is a major customer of Russia?s state weapons exporters, who by one estimate have already lost as much as $10 billion in orders during the political turmoil of the Arab Spring and a missile contract with Iran that was shelved as a result of the ?reset? with Washington. The military industry holds sway over a significant slice of Russian voters and ?will be very angry at the ruling group? if further contracts are lost, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs.
?We have an election year here, and this time it is a more real election campaign. He is campaigning quite seriously,? Mr. Lukyanov said. ?That means all groups of society are valuable, and the military industry is very angry over this chain of events.?
Russia has benefited from Syria?s isolation from the West over the years, because it enjoys preferential access for its arms and petroleum industries. Syria places orders worth about $700 million a year, making it a ?major, very important, high-priced client by Russian standards,? said Ruslan Aliyev, a defense specialist at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow research center. But Moscow wields little influence over Mr. Assad, he said.
This created problems for Moscow in 2006, when Israel, another Russian ally, found that Hezbollah fighters were using Russian-made weaponry that had been sold to Syria, in violation of Syria?s agreement with Russia. Mr. Aliyev called this ?a weighty slap in the face.? Mr. Assad has also defied Russian counsel to ?stop the hostilities and bloodshed.?
?It?s difficult to defend a person who does not want to cooperate with you and is not prepared to take advice from you,? Mr. Aliyev said.
Mr. Aliyev, who was present at meetings with American diplomats last week, said that Americans were convinced that Mr. Assad?s government would fall and advocated engaging with the opposition. Russian officials are ?more pragmatic,? arguing that change will lead to ?a civil war, followed by rampant violence and banditry and terrorism, as it happened in other countries,? he said.
Mr. Lavrov sent a clear signal last week that Russia would not intervene militarily in defense of Mr. Assad?s government.
Some Russian analysts warn that if Mr. Assad falls, it will lead to a broader war pitting Arab nations against Iran. Mr. Satanovsky said that Russia could see ?maybe hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of refugees coming from Iranian territory into Azerbaijan and Russia? if that were to occur, as well as ethnic violence against Christian minorities and the spread of terrorism. He said Russia supported not Mr. Assad, but stability.
?After Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Afghanistan, why should Russia once more look at all this with the idea that everything will be all right?? he said. ?This is not a choice between good and bad, this is a choice between bad ? which we have now ? and terrible and apocalyptic.?
Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=bf1aa29ef8571de3d33e54d621596c11
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