Tuesday, January 31, 2012

CBS News: Mitt Romney to win Florida

2012 Florida Primaries - Romney(Credit: CBS/AP)

Updated: 8:18 p.m. ET

Mitt Romney has defeated Newt Gingrich in the Florida Republican primary, CBS News is projecting based on exit polls and early vote counts, a victory that reestablishes the former Massachusetts governor as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.

With more than 3,000 of 6,796 precincts reporting, Romney had 48 percent of the vote, followed by 31 percent for Gingrich, 13 percent for Rick Santorum and 7 percent for Ron Paul.

Neither Santorum nor Paul seriously competed in the Sunshine State, a winner-take-all contest whose 50 delegates will go entirely to Romney.

Romney's victory in Florida comes ten days after Gingrich's double-digit win in the South Carolina primary, a result that seemed to rejuvenate the former House speaker's campaign. In the wake of that outcome, Romney pivoted to a far more aggressive posture, harshly criticizing Gingrich on the stump, the debate stage and in a barrage of negative advertising.

Romney performed well throughout the state according to returns in so far: He is amassing solid gains in South Florida and Miami, and is winning in the central part of the state. Bolstered by strong organization in recent weeks, Romney also did very well with Florida's sizable number of early and absentee voters.

Full Florida primary results
Florida exit poll
Republican delegate scorecard
Full state-by-state GOP primary results

Exit polls showed Romney dominating Gingrich among women - 51 percent to 29 percent - and also besting him among men, 42 percent to 36 percent. Romney was seen as the more electable candidate by 58 percent of Florida GOP voters (compared to 33 percent for Gingrich) and won more than half of Hispanic GOP primary voters - 15 percent of the electorate.�

In an outcome likely to infuriate Gingrich, who has relentlessly cast Romney as insufficiently conservative, self-identified conservatives (seven in ten primary voters) favored Romney over Gingrich 42 percent to 37 percent, according to exit polls. Tea Partiers and white evangelicals were essentially split between the two candidates.

Romney's debate performances in Florida, in which he often had his rivals on his heels, were widely praised - a reversal from the South Carolina debates, where it was Gingrich who shined. In exit polls in both states, roughly two in three voters said the debates were an important factor in their decision. Exit polls in Florida showed late deciders favoring Romney 45 percent to 35 percent for Gingrich.

Romney and the super PAC backing him also appear to have widely outspent Gingrich (and his super PAC) in advertising, with media buying firms saying that Romney and his super PAC spent roughly $16 million to a relatively paltry $4 million or so for Gingrich and his super PAC. (The Romney campaign disputes this, claiming the disparity was closer to 2-1.)

Among the 39 percent of voters who said in exit polls that campaign ads were an important factor in their vote, Romney bested Gingrich 56 percent to 32 percent.

As Romney assailed Gingrich in ads and on the stump for his past record - including his links to Freddie Mac and his ethics reprimand in the House - Gingrich's rhetoric against his rival grew increasingly heated. Gingrich took to casting Romney as a liberal on abortion and other issues whose dishonesty proves he cannot be trusted.

Despite the heavy focus on the early nominating contests, the race for delegates is far from over. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida award just 112 delegates total - and 1,144 are needed to secure the nomination.

After a feverish January, the nominating contest slows down somewhat in February ahead of "Super Tuesday" on March 6. Caucuses will be held in Nevada on February 4; in Colorado and Minnesota on February 7; and in Maine ending on February 11. Arizona and Michigan also hold primaries on February 28.

Romney won Nevada, Michigan, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota in his 2008 presidential run, and he has superior organization, financial resources and establishment support to Gingrich. (On Tuesday night, Romney announced he raised more than $24 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, to Gingrich's less than $10 million.) But the former House speaker is vowing not to leave the race anytime soon, predicting before the Florida vote that the contest would go for another six months - "unless Romney drops out earlier."

After celebrating his Florida win in Tampa, Romney was scheduled to travel to Minnesota for a campaign stop before moving on to Las Vegas. Gingrich was scheduled to travel state to Nevada; Santorum was watching the Florida returns from that state, and planned to campaign briefly in Colorado before returning there. Paul, who is focused on accruing delegates as opposed to winning the momentum battle, was scheduled to spend the day in Colorado before heading to Nevada.


Source: http://feeds.cbsnews.com/~r/CBSNewsMain/~3/uh7mAImHW0k/

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