TEHRAN ? Despite its latest warnings in response to the possibility of a Western oil boycott, Iran is unlikely to make good on its repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz because the Islamic Republic needs the strategic waterway as much as or more than its adversaries, analysts say.
Iran, which feels threatened by the presence of U.S. bases and warships in the region, has warned for years that it would choke off the strait in case of war or economic sanctions. The narrow passage at the entrance to the Persian Gulf hosts a daily caravan of tankers that transport roughly a third of the world?s oil shipments.
(AFP/Getty Images) - Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, seen here in 2006, told students Tuesday that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz in reprisal for any Western boycott of Iran?s oil.
The European Union, encouraged by the United States, is expected to decide in January whether to boycott Iranian crude. And countries such as Japan and South Korea are under increasing U.S. pressure to stop buying oil from Iran, currently the world?s fifth-largest producer.
By undermining Iran?s ability to generate income through oil sales, the United States hopes to force Tehran to abandon its uranium-enrichment program, which the Obama administration suspects is secretly aimed at enabling Iran to build nuclear weapons. Iran denies it is trying to build nuclear arms.
Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told students Tuesday that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz in reprisal for any Western boycott of Iran?s oil.
?Not even a drop of oil will flow through the Persian Gulf,? Rahimi warned, according to the state-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). A closure would prompt a spike in oil prices, analysts said, dealing a further blow to the troubled world economy.
In addition to the threats, Iran has started a 10-day naval exercise to demonstrate what it calls ?asymmetrical warfare,? a military doctrine aimed at defeating U.S. aircraft carriers in a potential Persian Gulf conflict by using swarms of rocket-mounted speedboats and a barrage of missiles.
?Does the West expect us to be threatened and attacked and we just surrender?? asked Ali Akbar Javanfekr, head of IRNA and an unofficial spokesman for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. ?What are our options? Be sure, we can find ways to tackle any sanctions.?
A spokesman for the U.S. 5th Fleet, based in Bahrain, told Reuters news agency Wednesday that no disruption of the strait would be tolerated.
?The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity,? the spokesman said. ?Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations.?
Oil producers have not sat idle following decades of Iranian threats to shut off the only regional energy transportation corridor. The United Arab Emirates have nearly finished a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day pipeline circumventing the Persian Gulf. U.A.E. officials say the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline Project is a ?strategic pass,? circumventing the Hormuz Strait in case Iran closes the chokepoint.
Iranian officials insist that the U.A.E. pipeline and others that are being constructed in the region will not lessen the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait. But they have raised the issue repeatedly, which analysts say is a sign that they are, in fact, nervous about it.
And Iran itself ? which has enjoyed record oil profits over the past five years but is faced with a dwindling number of oil customers ? relies on the Hormuz Strait as the departure gate for its biggest client: China.
?We would be committing economical suicide by closing off the Hormuz Strait,? said an Iranian Oil Ministry official who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. ?Oil money is our only income, so we would be spectacularly shooting ourselves in the foot by doing that.?
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a political scientist running for parliament from the camp of hard-line clerics and commanders opposing Ahmadinejad, said it is ?good politics? for Iran to respond to U.S. threats with threats of its own.
?But our threat will not be realized,? Ardestani said. ?We are just responding to the U.S., nothing more.?
Special correspondent Ramtin Rastin contributed to this article.
Source: http://feeds.washingtonpost.com/click.phdo?i=841fb8fb64bbbaac0b630e0f1cb19caf
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